SEIR Monte Carlo model
This model is intended to give a feeling how bad an epidemic can get if we “do nothing”, meaning R0 stays constant with time. Many parameters have a range of uncertainty, therefore every parameter have an average value and a +/- range, and the Monte Carlo chooses a value in this range, uniformly distributed over the range. This models the basic compartments of Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Critical, Dead and Recovered. Only the non-immuned population can get exposed. Infected can either become Critical (needing ICU) or Recovered. Critical can become Dead or Recovered.
Note: Looping over many Monte Carlo rounds improves the noise but takes longer. 200 rounds were good for the median graphs, 1000 were needed for good histograms.
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